Vacancy is the one cost on a rental analysis with no invoice attached. Taxes have a bill, insurance has a quote, and the empty weeks are a number you choose. Choose 5% and this house pays you $159 a month. Choose 10% and it pays $62.
What is a vacancy rate?
It is the share of a year’s rent you never collect, written as a percentage. At 5% vacancy a house renting for $1,950 brings in $1,853 a month averaged over the year, and the missing $97 stands for the days between tenants.
It covers more than turnover. A tenant who leaves in month nine of a lease, a unit that sits through December because nobody moves at Christmas, and rent that is owed but never paid all land in the same line.
What is the national rental vacancy rate?
The Census Bureau measures it every quarter. Its Housing Vacancy Survey put the national rental vacancy rate at 7.3% for the second quarter of 2026, released on July 28, 2026. The release noted the figure was not statistically different from the 7.0% recorded in the second quarter of 2025. The homeowner vacancy rate was 1.2%.
That 7.3% is a national average across every kind of rental, from a basement apartment to a 300-unit building, so it is a reference point rather than a forecast for your street. It is useful in one specific way: if your own assumption sits far below it, you should be able to say why. The rental calculator hints that most markets run 5 to 10%, which brackets the national figure on both sides.
One house at three vacancy rates
A $195,000 house renting for $1,950 a month, bought with 20% down on a 30-year loan at 7%. Property taxes are $2,300 a year and insurance $1,350. Repairs and big-ticket savings take 5% of rent each and management 8%. Only the vacancy rate changes across the three columns.
| 5% | 7.3% | 10% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | $1,950 | $1,950 | $1,950 |
| Empty and unpaid | −$98 | −$142 | −$195 |
| Property taxes | −$191 | −$191 | −$191 |
| Insurance | −$112 | −$112 | −$112 |
| Repairs (5% of rent) | −$98 | −$98 | −$98 |
| Big-ticket savings (5% of rent) | −$98 | −$98 | −$98 |
| Property management (8% of rent) | −$156 | −$156 | −$156 |
| Mortgage | −$1,038 | −$1,038 | −$1,038 |
| Cash flow each month | +$159 | +$115 | +$62 |
These are example figures, not a forecast for any market.
Moving from 5% to 10% costs $97 a month, which is $1,164 a year on a house that made $1,914 a year to begin with. Nothing else changed. No rate rise, no new roof, no rent cut. One assumption you typed.
The same move drags the debt coverage ratio from 1.15 to 1.06. That matters because lenders that size a loan on the property’s income want a cushion above 1.00, so a vacancy assumption can quietly change what a lender will lend. The DSCR post covers how differently lenders count it.
How much vacancy can this house take?
Push the rate up until cash flow hits zero and this house breaks at 13.2%, which is about 48 days empty a year. Above that it costs you money every month.
That is the number worth writing down, because it reframes the question. You are not trying to predict vacancy. You are checking how wrong you can be before the deal stops working. A house with a 13% cushion survives a bad tenant. A house that breaks at 6% needs everything to go right.
The same logic runs on the rent side, where break-even rent is the floor the house has to clear.
What does one turnover actually cost?
More than the empty month. One vacant month a year is 8.3% vacancy on its own, which puts this house at $95 a month, and that is before you have paid for anything.
A turnover usually adds:
- paint and cleaning, plus whatever the last tenant wore out
- a leasing fee, often a half or a full month’s rent, if an agent finds the tenant
- utilities in your name while the house is empty
- your own time showing it
Those come out of the repair budget, not the vacancy line, so counting a turnover as vacancy alone understates it. The repair and replacement budget is where the make-ready work belongs.
Which number should you type in?
Build it from the lease rather than from a national average.
- Start with how long a tenant stays. A house that turns over every two years with one empty month is roughly 4% vacancy. Every year with one empty month is 8.3%.
- Add the local market. Ask two property managers how long their listings sit and how long their tenants stay. Their answer is about your zip code, which the national rate is not.
- Check the season. A unit that comes empty in November in a cold market can sit twice as long as one that comes empty in June.
- Then test the deal, not the guess. Run it at your number and again at 10%, and see whether the verdict changes.
If the answer flips between those two runs, vacancy is the assumption the whole deal rests on, and it is worth two phone calls to pin down. If it holds at 10%, you can stop worrying about it and go back to the tax bill, which is the line that more often ruins a first year. Twelve numbers to confirm covers the rest of them.